Ruidoso, NM Update: First The Fires - Now The Catastrophic Flash Flooding!

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Ruidoso, NM Update: First The Fires - Now The Catastrophic Flash Flooding!

Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Wendell L. Malone

Jul 02, 2024

Transcript

Stack updated at 12:50 PM MDT Tuesday, July 2, 2024.

Stack updated at 3:53 PM MDT Thursday, July 4, 2024.

First came the devastating South Fork, and Salt forest fires that have as of this morning burned a combined total of 25,508 acres. Both fires are 85% and 84% contained. Sadly two people lost their lives in the fires and everyone that was reported as missing has been accounted for. These two fires were after the Blue 2 fire earlier this spring and the McBride fire last year.

Flash flooding has occurred on four separate days so far in and around the Ruidoso area. Keep in mind that the Rio Ruidoso River normally is just a trickling mountain stream that in most places you can jump across and only a couple of feet deep. The Rio Ruidoso River flood gauge has recorded the following peak flood crests:

Wednesday, June 19th 8.36’
Sunday, June 23rd 11.43’
Saturday, June 29th 10.02’
Sunday, June 30th 10.66’
The record crest on the Rio Ruidoso (1966 - 2024) is 12.08’ and occurred on July 27, 2008, during the flash flooding from the remanent tropical moisture from former Hurricane Dolly.

This past Saturday local officials and the New Mexico National Guard rescued 26 people from the flood waters. Sunday they rescued 51 100. Thankfully no lives have been lost in the flooding.

Holloman AFB and El Paso/Santa Teresa National Weather Service Dual Pol Doppler Radar estimated storm total rainfall amounts on Sunday, June 30, 2024. Storm totals on this past Sunday ranged from 3” to 6+” over downtown Ruidoso, and southward over the Salt Fire Burn Scar. All falling within a couple of hours. This caused the catastrophic flash flooding you see in the videos.

Flash flooding will be an ongoing hazard in the Ruidoso area for the rest of the summer into the fall. Especially whenever thunderstorms produce heavy, or very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time over and near the burn scars. In fact, this whole area will continue to be more susceptible than normal to continued flash flood threats for several years to come because of the fires in the area and their associated burn scars.

Hurricane Beryl infrared satellite image at 9:30 AM MDT Tuesday, July 2, 2024.

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Beryl forecast track.

Ensemble forecast tracks are courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics, Inc.

As of 9 AM MDT this Tuesday morning Category 5 Hurricane Beryl had sustained winds of 160 mph with gusts to 200 mph. Beryl has set all kinds of records for being the earliest, strongest, and furtherest south hurricane to develop in the Atlantic Basin.

Beryl is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico Friday night and move northwestward. What happens to Berly and where he goes will determine if any of his remnant tropical moisture will make it to New Mexico. As of this morning, I don’t see that happening but it’s way too early to make that call. Yes, much of the local area needs the rainfall as we continue in a severe to moderate drought. But not Ruidoso, not now.

The worst-case scenario for the Ruidoso area and other burn scar locations in New Mexico would be for his moisture to move into our region and aggravate an already bad situation. This happened with former Hurricane Dolly in July 2008 which produced catastrophic, and deadly flash flooding in the Ruidoso area when 6” to 9” of rain fell overnight.

At this point in time we can only speculate on Beryl’s potential strength and track next week after he enters the Gulf. The forecast models show a wide range of possibilities. So there where he goes, and who he impacts, and to what extent is up in the air for now.